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How ChurchFuture Uses Science
by David Raymond
Can you guess how many books and programs and seminars
are out there that promise to revitalize congregations?
There must be hundreds. The Alban
Institute alone offers eight different seminars every
quarter and its new book list alone has 30 titles. With all the
books and programs available it's a wonder
that every congregation isn’t thriving.
These programs and books have value, but they are often
limited by the fact that they were developed out of a
particular set of circumstances with unique
leaders. Churches that sign on to these programs and
follow these books too often find that results that
occurred in other settings don’t materialize in their
congregation.
So how do we sort out what really works from the
approaches that sound great but leave us frustrated?
Fortunately there is an emerging science of
congregations that provides insight based on objective
research. The Lilly Endowment has funded two major
peer-reviewed studies of congregations in changing
environments that are particularly helpful. The first
was directed by Nancy Ammerman, who was a professor
of the sociology of religion at Hartford Seminary. (She
is now at Boston University.) This study of 300
congregations in nine changing communities throughout
the United States is described in Ammerman’s landmark
book, Congregation and Community, Rutgers
University Press, 1997.
The second Lilly-funded study is the Multiracial
Congregations Project directed by Michael O. Emerson,
George Yancey and Karen Chai Kim, which studied 500 congregations across the country. Its findings are
reported in United by Faith, Oxford University
Press, 2003. This book was written by the three
researchers along with Curtiss DeYoung, who contributed
an excellent theological underpinning.
The Hartford Institute for Religion
Research conducts large-scale surveys and studies of
faith communities in the United States. A recent
Hartford study, Facts on Growth,
looked at the variables between growing and declining
congregations in four key areas.
Many of the findings in these studies echo points that
are found in the “how-to” materials, but some of the
most critical findings in each study are just the
opposite of common practice. Non of these studies
provide a ready-made program or plan for a church to
follow, but cumulatively they can steer us in directions that are
verified by impartial academic study of hundreds of congregations
with a wide range of circumstances and leaders. They
help us sort out what really works from the ideas that
sound good.
There are other scientifically-based studies of congregations that
are not peer reviewed but nonetheless helpful. One is
the work of Christian Schwarz in his book, Natural
Church Development, ChurchSmart Resources, 1996.
Schwarz established a list of 8 “quality
characteristics” from his study of church growth
literature at Fuller Seminary. He then designed a
statistically-validated questionnaire to measure these 8
characteristics within individual congregations. By
correlating the scores on the 8 characteristics against
actual performance, Schwarz has identified benchmark
scores that are universally correlated with
congregational vitality.
Schwarz' best known (and probably most useful) finding
is that all 8 characteristics need
to be relatively strong for vitality, which appears to
contradict Kennon Callahan's advice to build on your
strengths and ignore your weaknesses. The Natural Church
Development (NCD) program focuses on the congregation’s weakest
characteristic.
I
am trained as an NCD coach and
find a lot of value in Schwarz’ work. The evidence
available indicates that the NCD program is almost always incrementally positive for
congregations that are already reasonably healthy,
especially when they use a trained coach. The program
appears to be designed for steady improvement rather than
transformation--it does not appear to be structured
for struggling or troubled congregations. NCD urges
congregations to use strategic planning as a tool as
they improve their weakest characteristic, but NCD is
not a substitute for comprehensive strategic planning.
By the same token, the NCD questionnaire is not designed
to uncover the congregation's vision. Nonetheless, I
find that the basic principles of NCD are
highly
instructive for any congregation, especially in
correlation with principles from other methods and
studies. One congregation I have worked with is using
the NCD annual questionnaire as a measurement and
evaluation tool in their vision and plan. There are
other congregations who might find the NCD program to be
a worthwhile strategy in their vision and plan.
A
second non-peer-reviewed study is one that I conducted
in coordination with the Minneapolis Area Synod. Using data from the ELCA research
department, we ranked the 167 synod congregations based
on their 5-year results
with formerly unchurched people
and their percentage growth in membership,
attendance and people of color over the 5-year period.
Looking only at churches in areas with little or no
population growth, we
then identified the
four churches with the strongest overall record with the
selected criteria. I visited each of these churches and
interviewed their pastors and lay leaders, and together
with the pastors and lay leaders I
presented this research at two synod workshops. As in
the other studies, some of the findings of this project
are predictable while others are counter-intuitive. One
finding is especially encouraging for congregations that
are struggling or in crisis. This study is unpublished,
but an article about it by Russell Tokheim appeared in
the April, 2005 issue of Metro Lutheran.
There is a sometimes-derided but seminal book on
congregations that is not based on science but
nonetheless has a verified record of positive results in
thousands of congregations. This book is Rick Warren’s
Purpose Driven Church, Zondervan, 1995. Warren’s
5 purposes coincide with Schwarz’ 8 quality
characteristics, and, similar to Schwarz, Warren
advocates balance
in the congregation’s approach to purposes or
characteristics. I generally present the frameworks of
both Schwarz and Warren to congregations because I find
value in both. Lay people tend to grasp and understand the 5 purposes
easier than the 8 characteristics, perhaps because the
purposes are presented in an easily understood biblical context. Warren has an intuitive understanding
of congregations that has proven productive in a wide
range of settings worldwide.
Diana Butler Bass has recent book, Christianity for
the Rest of Us, How the Neighborhood Church is
Transforming the Faith, HarperSanFrancisco, 2006,
that is a helpful mix of observation and sociology. This
book focuses on mainline congregations with vitality. If
nothing else it demonstrates that established mainline
congregations are not condemned to decline and that
liberal churches can thrive. Her chapter on worship is
particularly helpful.
There are numerous general scientific studies of other organizations
that are instructive for congregations. One that
is particularly helpful to churches that are
contemplating change is Everett Rogers’ Diffusion of
Innovations, The Free Press, 1962. The strength of this
book is shown by the fact that it is still in
print today, after 44 years. This book is based on the adoption of
hybrid seed corn in Greene County, Iowa, and its
findings (sometimes distorted) turn up in numerous
articles and seminars. When I present this material in
congregations I
always get a “head bobbing” reaction. A second is
Good to Great and the Social Sectors, 2005, by Jim
Collins. Collins is best known for his research on
business, but lately he has focused on non-business
organizations. The Spring, 2006 edition of Leadership
Journal has an interview with Collins on “The Good to
Great Pastor.”
Work based on science can lead congregations to
productive outcomes. The limitation of science, however,
is that it does not deal with mission. Fortunately there
are lots of great non-scientific resources that focus in
that direction. Two that I really like (besides the New
Testament) are Kelly Fryer’s little books, Reclaiming
the “L” Word (2003) and Reclaiming the “E” Word
(2008), both published by Augsburg Fortress. Fryer’s
work is grounded in congregations, and she is an
incredible communicator. For congregations, science
without mission is foolish, but attempting to do mission
while ignoring science usually ends in frustration.
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